Election Night - I'm Gonna be a Pundit.
Jimmy the P has asked a couple of the regular contributors at the Well to participate in the Midland Reporter Telegram's election night coverage, including yours truly.
That's right, a respectable news organization has asked me to be a real life Political Pundit. I sense a train-wreck, but isn't that what sells papers and drives eye-balls to websites?
I'm not sure about the status of the other contributors, but I have accepted Jimmy's offer and will provide my amateur analysis of this election.
The first thing most pundits do is make predictions, so here it goes:
State/Local Races and Issues:
Craddick vs. Dingus: Craddick 65%, Dingus 35%. Craddick will win easily, but unless he surprises me and relegates Dingus to less than 25% of the vote count, he should expect aggressive challengers for as long as he wants to serve in the Texas House.
Jail Bond Issue: For: 55%, Against 45%. A bond election with almost no local media/coffee shop heat generally passes. The dollar figure is low and Midland County has shown a propensity to move forward with projects in this funding range without voter approval, I guess we should be lucky it went to the ballot box.
Conaway vs. Strohm: Conaway in a blow-out 90%+, but it will be interesting to see the percentage of non-voters in this race. Anything over 25% blank ballots in this race could signal a challenger to rise up. Though, it won't matter in the long run, redistricting is coming up very quickly and Conaway, and Midland/Odessa, could suffer at the hands of the redistricting committee, especially if Craddick is out of the Speakership.
Williams vs Two Other Opponents: Williams by a large margin, but not a blow out because of straight party voting. As a well liked elected official with lots of potential, I'm just curious how many more terms Williams will serve at the RRC before he jumps to a bigger office? Energy Secretary in a McCain White house?
My precincts for County Commissioner and School Board aren't on the ballot this year, so I really don't have an opinion on these races, because I haven't followed them.
National Races:
Cornyn vs. Noriega and a Libertarian: Cornyn 62%, Noriega 32%. Cornyn hasn't done anything to upset the electorate, but he's going to suffer with a lot of straight party voting in the metro areas, so Noriega gets a boost.
McCain/Palin vs. Obama/Biden: Split decision with at least Four State Supreme Courts or Secretary's of State making significant rulings (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Missouri). Obama will win the popular vote because California is excited about his candidacy and they will turn out in big numbers, and Obama has made gains in the Texas Metro areas. However, McCain will win the electoral vote, in no small part to Obama's Joe the Plumber and Bankrupting the Coal Companies remarks. Ayers and Wright fire up the base, but taxes and jobs motivate the masses. Look for something akin to 2000, but realistically, this will be over by Friday.
Democratic Control of House and Senate: The Democratic majorities will get larger, but they will fail to get a cloture proof 60 in the senate by 3 seats, and they will fail to get a veto proof house. That really doesn't matter because there are still enough RINO's in each chamber to allow lots of bad legislation to get through.
Let the comments commence!
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14 Comments
Well thought Ospurt ! I agree with all of your outcomes ..even the jail bond issue ,to which I voted NO , as taxes are an issue with me this year . Even if they were not I would NO as I am a registered Contrarian !
Good luck tomorrow !

Time to break out "the paper sack" and "walk out of the shadows of the night" ... I think you are right on most of of the candidates and issues with the Dem control of congress being unfortunate.

Not being a Midlander (any longer) I've no opinion on the local things but I do hope that you're right about the presidential race. Still, it will be, if it happens, quite a pull from behind. I have never seen a media more dishonest, but then I've never lived in the Soviet Union.
I hope that the remarks about coal companies get traction. But I had thought that other things would too. Bear in mind that Jeremiah Wright only made it into national attention when he said things, totally unremarkable for him, in the hallowed halls of the National Press Club. Think about that: the MSM's condescension that what the blacks say on the south side of Chicago is just them going on, but to say it in our temple...who's the racist here?
A friend of mine said that he hoped that working people (like I don't?) would get into the voting booth, raise their hands, and stop, shake their heads, and say, "No...no...just can't." And vote McCain. Bear in mind that he is an Aggie corpsman and so his sensibilities, which tend to match mine, may not be universal.

I wanted to predict a tie in the Electoral Vote and say the newly elected House would seat the President, just because that would be the craziest thing to happen, which seems to be the norm in politics these days.
I forgot to put an electoral total, McCain wins with 273.

You guys are crazy if you think that McCain is going to win the electoral vote. God help us if you're right, but thank heavens you're not.

No, God help your pocket book if Obama wins, and Heaven knows that.

Ospurt,
Your predictions sound as reasonable and probable as anything else I have heard lately. I have to say that your hope that the left will stop whining and moaning and suing by Friday is a bit optimistic. They'll be demanding recounts in states they lost 70%/30%.

re: I've seen more pages of good paper in a toilet roll!!
Stu ... you may be wipin' the wrong end, bud.

Reasonable calls on all the races, Ospurt. I am not sure we are going to have much of a difference of opinion to share tomorrow night for Jimmy the P. I may let you do the punditry and I will do "color." Or would that now be racist?
Before the invite, I was planning on heavy drinking while watching the returns come in, regardless of the outcome. Now it'll have to wait 'til later in the evening. Ah, the sacrifices we must make for the sake of our craft...
Your fellow bag-headed blogger,
Shepherd

Johnny O'bama, what did the party balloon say to the clown??
Blow me!!

I never beeievld in Lamar Alexander, who is up for re-election, to put a link on my site. Now, that' I've got my nonsense dealt with, I can let both him, and Corker, know just what I think of them both .respectfully as I can. Which, at this point in time, isn't very!

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respectable news organization?!?!? HA HA HA HA!!! I've seen more pages of good paper in a toilet roll!!